Despite repeated US claims of having decimated Iran's military capabilities, a leaked intelligence assessment from May 2026 suggests Tehran has retained a significant portion of its missile arsenal. The report concluded that Iran still possessed approximately 70% of its overall pre-war missile stockpile and launchers, and had regained access to 30 out of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
This revelation comes amid six consecutive nights of renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States. Following a wave of US attacks on Friday targeting Iranian ports and infrastructure in the south of the country, including the key Hormuz port of Bandar Abbas, Iran retaliated by striking US allies. Attacks on Qatar and Bahrain were reported, with a power and desalination plant in Kuwait sustaining damage and a fire. Desalination is crucial for water supply in the arid Gulf region, providing an estimated 90% of Kuwait's needs.
The escalating conflict has also directly impacted global shipping. Earlier this week, two oil tankers sailing in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz were struck by missiles, resulting in one fatality and eight injuries. A third tanker was hit further east in the Gulf of Oman. These incidents, reported by the UK’s Maritime Trade Organisation, highlight Iran's continued ability to target vessels in strategically important waterways.
The repercussions for international trade and energy markets have been immediate. The US has reimposed a blockade in the Gulf of Oman, leading to a dramatic reduction in daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz to just three by Thursday – the lowest number since May. Consequently, the price of Brent crude oil has risen from $75.50 at the end of last week to $82, underscoring Iran's capacity to disrupt global oil supplies with even a limited threat to the Strait.
The situation remains highly volatile, with both sides appearing to be on a path of further escalation. While the US retains significant military superiority, its strategy for de-escalation appears unclear, according to observers. Discussions at a White House Situation Room meeting earlier this week reportedly included options such as bombing another nuclear site or seizing the strategic Kharg Island, a vital hub for Iran's oil exports. However, holding such positions against Iranian missile and drone attacks would present a significant challenge.