Iraq is being torn asunder by the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, its sovereignty brutally exposed in a region where great powers have long vied for influence. The fragile Iraqi state is struggling to maintain control amidst an unfolding crisis that has seen critical oil infrastructure come under attack, leaving the nation perilously close to chaos.
Drone attacks in early March targeted vital energy sites in southern Iraq, including a BP-operated oilfield, a cargo terminal at Basra airport, and compounds housing foreign oil service companies like Halliburton and KBR. These strikes, which sparked significant fires, were followed by further assaults on oil tankers and fields in the subsequent weeks. While Iran acknowledged some attacks on oil tankers, many others remain unclaimed. However, senior Iraqi officials, speaking confidentially, suggest that numerous attacks were carried out by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), an umbrella group of powerful, Iran-backed Shia militias operating on Iraqi soil.
These militias, some of which are part of the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU) – theoretically subordinate to the Iraqi government – are reportedly acting independently, driven by both economic interests and a hardline ideological commitment to expelling the US from the Middle East and opposing Israel. The attacks led to hundreds of foreign energy sector workers, including American, European, and Chinese nationals, evacuating the country, with thousands of Iraqi workers also sent home. The central government in Baghdad and local Basra authorities have remained largely silent, offering only vague statements about sovereignty and investigations.
This volatile situation has been further complicated by the emergence of a new, US-backed Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi. In a significant move, al-Zaidi has issued a deadline of 30 September for all militia groups in the country to disarm and integrate their fighting forces into the Iraqi state. This directive aligns with longstanding American ambitions to diminish Iran's considerable influence within Iraq, but it also risks further escalating tensions with the powerful paramilitary groups.
For four decades, the US, Iran, and Israel maintained a tense, uneasy equilibrium in the region, which has now collapsed into open conflict. Iraq, a majority Shia nation, finds itself navigating a complex landscape where multiple, often independent, groups exert significant influence, fundamentally challenging the authority of the central government. The current hostilities highlight the profound internal divisions and the persistent external pressures that threaten to destabilise the nation further.