Japan has finally turned the tide on deflation, according to Masaki Taketsume, manager of the Schroder Japan Trust. Speaking on the MoneyWeek Talks podcast, he said the initial catalyst was the increase in import costs in 2022, which pushed Japanese firms to raise prices.
This led to a virtuous circle, with increased earnings growth feeding into higher wage growth, which in turn fuelled consumption and led to further earnings growth.
Taketsume credited much of the groundwork for this shift to reforms under former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who regained office in 2012. Abe employed a 'three arrows' strategy to tackle a shortage of demand, which was causing deflation and high unemployment. The strategy included physical stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and deregulation, including corporate governance reform.
According to Taketsume, these reforms prompted Japanese companies to release excess cash, initiate share buybacks, or increase dividends. They are now being pushed further to review their business portfolios and make growth investments to sustainably improve return on equity, a key gauge of profitability.
He noted that average return on equity for Japanese corporations was around 4% or 5% before the Abenomics era, but is now closer to 9% or 10%. While this transformation has doubled returns in just over a decade, it still lags behind European or US markets. Taketsume said the ongoing nature of the reforms suggests there may be further upside.