Labour has edged ahead of Reform UK in a recent voter intention poll, marking a significant shift in the political landscape not seen since March 2025. The weekly tracker by non-profit agency More in Common shows Labour's support increasing by four points to 28%, while Reform UK's backing has fallen to 24%. This change comes in the wake of Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first week in office, characterised by a series of high-profile policy announcements aimed at tackling the cost of living.
Luke Tryl, UK Director at More in Common, highlighted the momentum behind the new Prime Minister, stating that Labour's surge in the poll represents their highest vote share since the early months of the current Government in 2024. The early focus on issues such as energy bill tax cuts, bus fare caps, and reductions in business rates for pubs and clubs appears to have appealed to a broad spectrum of voters, drawing support from both the left and right.
Conversely, Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage, have endured weeks of negative publicity. Allegations concerning undeclared gifts and donations, the involvement of a convicted fraudster as an adviser, and an ongoing Metropolitan Police investigation into party payments have contributed to a decline in their poll numbers. The Green Party also saw a drop of three points to 8%, while the Conservative Party remained static at 22% and the Liberal Democrats gained one point to 12%.
Mr. Farage, who resigned his seat in Clacton earlier this month to trigger a by-election, has been unable to shake off these controversies. The parliamentary standards watchdog launched an investigation in May into whether a reported £5 million donation to Mr. Farage fell within rules requiring the declaration of gifts received before entering Parliament. The by-election itself has been widely criticised as a diversionary tactic amidst the scrutiny of his and the party's finances.
While Mr. Burnham's initial policies have not been without criticism, they have broadly been well-received. His gaffe-free appearance on a major broadcast interview over the weekend, where he discussed his positions on Ukraine and social care and ruled out an early election, further contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding his new premiership. It remains to be seen whether this early lead for Labour will be sustainable as the Government delves deeper into the practicalities of governing.