Labour has regained the lead in polling, marking its first such position since March 2025, according to two polls released this week. This follows Andy Burnham's first two weeks as Prime Minister, which have included a focus on bus fares, business rates, and energy bill cuts.
New MRP polling of over 10,000 voters, seen by the Guardian, indicates a six-point bounce in Labour's voting intention since mid-June, taking the party to 26%. Reform UK is at 23%.
The Convergent poll suggests Labour would secure 245 seats, Reform 174, Conservatives 99, and Liberal Democrats 67. This outcome would likely result in a hung parliament, requiring a coalition of at least three parties to form a majority.
Dylan Spielman, co-founder of Convergent, noted that the recovery has primarily come from progressive voters returning to Labour from the Greens and Liberal Democrats. However, less progress has been made in winning back Reform voters and Conservatives, who are considered pivotal in marginal seats.
Labour has seen the most significant gains in the north of England, particularly the north-west and Yorkshire and Humber. The recovery is described as minimal in Wales and Scotland, where Labour experienced losses in May.