Prime Minister Andy Burnham has dismissed suggestions of an early general election, despite new polling from City AM and Freshwater Strategy indicating a potential shift in the electoral landscape.
The latest survey shows Labour's vote share has increased by nine points since July to 29 per cent. This places them six points ahead of Reform UK, whose support has fallen by six points to 23 per cent in the same period. The Conservative Party's vote share is up one point to 22 per cent since July, while the Green Party is down three points to nine per cent, and the Liberal Democrats are down two points to 10 per cent.
If these results were replicated nationally with a uniform swing, Labour would be three seats short of a parliamentary majority. The poll also found that 58 per cent of the public desire an election by the end of 2027, with 31 per cent wanting one as soon as possible.
The Budget is scheduled for three weeks from now. The polling suggests 67 per cent of respondents anticipate tax increases, 54 per cent expect to be worse off, and 40 per cent believe the Budget will harm the economy. Public preference for tax cuts with less spending stands at 55 per cent, compared to 33 per cent for tax rises.