The by-election campaign in Makerfield, Greater Manchester, is drawing to a close amidst reports of deep divisions and increased animosity among residents. As voters prepare to cast their ballots on Thursday, the contest has been characterised by intense campaigning and a fragmented political landscape, particularly on the right.
Labour’s candidate, Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester, is widely tipped to win, with recent polls suggesting a lead of between three and twelve percentage points over Reform UK. The Labour Party has mobilised extensive resources, with numerous MPs and party figures actively campaigning in the constituency. Rachael Maskell MP, a prominent Labour figure, expressed optimism about Burnham’s chances, suggesting voters are turning to him for unity amid perceived divisiveness from other parties. Maskell even hinted at a rapid leadership challenge for Burnham if he is elected, stating the country is 'crying out for his leadership'.
However, the election's outcome may be significantly influenced by the newly formed right-wing party, Restore Britain. Launched just four months ago, Restore Britain, which advocates policies such as the death penalty and mass deportations, is projected to secure around 7% of the vote. This unexpected surge could prove pivotal by drawing votes away from Reform UK, potentially paving the way for a Labour victory. Local observers, such as Darren, a Reform-supporting snooker club owner, believe that without Restore Britain, Reform UK would have a clearer path to success, but the vote split will likely benefit Burnham.
The campaign has been notably aggressive, with reports of posters being defaced and neighbours falling out over political allegiances. Trevor Jones, a Reform leader on Bolton Council and a battlebus driver, described the Makerfield campaign as 'more aggressive than I’ve ever seen', recounting incidents where Restore Britain activists allegedly attempted to block and plaster the Reform bus with their own posters. Residents in this semi-rural area, historically Labour-leaning and predominantly white British, have expressed concern over the escalating toxicity. Pam Flaherty, a 70-year-old retired nursery cook and former lifelong Labour voter now supporting Reform, spoke of a man spitting at her poster, highlighting the personal toll of the divisive atmosphere.
Beyond the local tensions, the by-election is being watched closely for its broader implications for national politics. A strong showing for Andy Burnham could bolster his standing within the Labour Party, potentially fuelling speculation about his future leadership ambitions. Conversely, the performance of Reform UK and the emergence of Restore Britain offer insights into the evolving landscape of right-wing politics in the UK, particularly in constituencies with a history of shifting allegiances. The by-election serves as a barometer of public sentiment in a traditionally Labour heartland that has experienced significant political realignment in recent years.
Source: The Guardian