The closely watched Makerfield by-election has come to a close, casting a spotlight on Labour's Westminster ambitions as well as its internal struggles. Andy Burnham's surprise decision to contest the seat has been seen as a strategic move by the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, not only to rejoin the parliamentary fray but also potentially to lay down a marker for a future leadership bid within the party. Burnham's bid is widely interpreted as a direct challenge to Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, particularly in light of recent local election results that have shown a significant shift away from Labour in areas such as Makerfield.
Located near Wigan in North West England, Makerfield has historically been a safe Labour seat since its creation in 1983. However, over the past decade, it has mirrored broader trends across post-industrial regions in Northern England by showing increasing support for Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage. In the previous general election, while Labour secured a majority of 5,399 with 45.2% of the vote, Reform UK came second, doubling its vote share from the previous election. The recent local elections in Makerfield saw Reform UK take an impressive 50.4% of the vote across eight wards, posing a considerable challenge for the Labour Party.
The by-election has been dominated by a two-horse race between Burnham and Robert Kenyon, a local plumber standing for Reform UK. While constituency polls had indicated a lead for Burnham, ranging from three to twelve percentage points over Kenyon, the presence of other parties like Restore Britain on the right-wing end of the spectrum was expected to divide the vote. However, controversy has surrounded Kenyon's campaign following scrutiny of his public appearances and past social media posts, which included comments deemed "disgusting" by Carol Vorderman, sparking concerns about his suitability for office.
Sir Keir Starmer has acknowledged Burnham's value to the party, suggesting he would offer him a significant role in government if Labour were to win the next general election. However, reports from Burnham's allies suggest he is not interested in such an offer, instead looking to create a scenario where Starmer might step aside. The outcome of this by-election will be watched closely for its immediate impact on Labour's internal dynamics and the broader narrative surrounding the party's direction.
Simultaneously, two other UK parliamentary by-elections concluded: Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. In Aberdeen South, the focus has been on the future of North Sea oil and gas, with the Conservative Party seeking to unseat the Scottish National Party. The SNP expressed confidence in retaining Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.