The Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis, has thrown down the gauntlet to his Prime Minister-in-waiting, Andy Burnham, calling on him to spell out a clear plan for increasing defence spending in line with NATO's target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035. This ambitious goal would require an additional £25 billion per year for the military by the middle of the next decade, sparking concerns about resource allocation and potential cuts elsewhere.
Speaking ahead of the annual NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Mr Jarvis has made it clear that he expects a significant increase in defence funding to be included in the next spending review. He expressed confidence in Mr Burnham's commitment to national security, stating, "I have not a shred of doubt that as prime minister he will make sure that we’ve got the resources that we need at a point of challenge." However, his comments suggest potential tensions within the incoming government over resource allocation, with such a substantial increase likely necessitating alternative funding mechanisms or cuts elsewhere.
The Defence Secretary has already been in discussions with Mr Burnham and his team regarding defence priorities, following the recent publication of the £298 billion, four-year Defence Investment Plan (DIP). While this plan saw a modest uplift of £1.5 billion over four years to enhance drone capabilities, meeting the 3.5% NATO commitment by 2035 represents a far more significant financial challenge than the initial commitment to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, which led to his predecessor's resignation.
Mr Jarvis highlighted the increasingly volatile global landscape as a key justification for bolstering military capabilities. He noted, "The world is absolutely more dangerous and more complicated than at any point during my lifetime," citing the presence of Russian warships and vessels accused of launching drones near UK airspace. At the NATO summit, he will seek to reassure his US counterpart that the UK remains committed to honouring its 3.5% spending pledge, originally agreed last year under pressure from Donald Trump.
Achieving the 3.5% target would necessitate a substantial shift in national resources, potentially through spending cuts in other departments, increased taxation, or higher borrowing. Mr Jarvis acknowledged the need to build a strong public and Cabinet case for defence spending, describing the current funding gap as "entirely routine in terms of Whitehall accounting." He defended the recent DIP, stating it had "skewed more money and we sharpened our capabilities," securing approximately £600 million extra for drones after studying their use in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Source: UKPulse Media interviews with Dan Jarvis