Mongolia, often seen as a distant neighbour to the Arctic nations, is experiencing a profound transformation of its frozen landscapes. The nation's cryosphere is undergoing rapid change, with some of the most southerly permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere rapidly thawing due to climate change. This phenomenon has significant implications not only for local communities and ecosystems but also for the wider circumpolar north.
Historical surveys from the 1970s indicated that nearly 63% of Mongolia was underlain by permafrost, a figure that has plummeted to between 26% and 29% in recent years. Unlike the ice-rich permafrost found in regions such as Siberia or Alaska, much of Mongolia's permafrost is characterised by being relatively warm, thin, and dry, rendering it exceptionally vulnerable to rising temperatures. Professor Nikolay Shiklomanov, a leading expert on permafrost from George Washington University, highlights that while climate change is the primary driver, local pressures like overgrazing can exacerbate the thaw by removing insulating vegetation.
Permafrost in Mongolia plays a vital role in regulating hydrology, keeping water close to the surface and sustaining wetlands, springs, river systems, and pastureland essential for nomadic herders. As this frozen ground melts, the foundation is shifting dramatically. In areas like the Darkhad Depression, one of Mongolia's largest permafrost regions, thermokarst ponds are expanding across grasslands as underground ice melts and the ground subsides. This leads to the collapse of pingos, the migration of wetlands, and increasingly unpredictable traditional grazing areas.
The environmental changes brought about by thawing permafrost are becoming visible in the daily lives of Mongolians. Pastures are becoming wetter and marshier, while others dry out as water infiltrates deeper into the ground. Springs are shifting their locations, seasonal water availability is changing, and vegetation patterns are evolving. For herders, whose livelihoods are intricately linked to a delicate balance of water, grass, and livestock, these changes are not abstract scientific projections but tangible, lived realities.
Understanding these complex changes requires a multifaceted approach. Purevdulam Yondonrentsen, an MSc student in ecology at the National University of Mongolia, notes that the country's diverse landscapes and environments require careful consideration to develop effective strategies for mitigating the impacts of permafrost thaw. As the effects of climate change continue to unfold, it is clear that the fate of Mongolia's ecosystems and livelihoods hangs precariously in the balance.