The National Audit Office (NAO) has warned ministers to hold off implementing revised plans for the £102.7 billion HS2 high-speed rail project until they can confidently deliver it. The public spending watchdog's new report highlights the need for a stable foundation, following costly past failures that have plagued its development.
The estimated cost of the project has risen by approximately £70 billion since initial estimates in 2011, while the commencement of train services between London and Birmingham is now anticipated as late as 2039 – 13 years behind schedule. The full completion of the project is not expected until 2043. Following a 15-month review, HS2 Ltd's chief executive developed a new plan for the remaining construction work, but the NAO report stresses that significant work remains before the project can be completed.
The DfT and HS2 Ltd aim to finalise the reset by spring 2027, but the NAO advises against proceeding with the new plans until all necessary elements are in place. The report also suggests reviewing the realism of the new timetable this autumn and making revisions if needed. The cost associated with the extensive reset process is estimated at £153 million.
The Manchester leg of HS2 was formally cancelled in October 2023, sparking criticism, while initial estimates for the project's construction had priced it at £32.7 billion in 2011 – a figure roughly double the latest projection. Services were originally slated to begin this year, but are now not expected until 2039.
NAO head Gareth Davies underlined the importance of establishing a fully robust cost and schedule estimate, completing commercial negotiations, and securing the right capabilities before finalising the reset. A DfT spokesperson said the government has taken decisive action to ensure safe delivery at the lowest reasonable cost, while HS2 Ltd echoed this, claiming the fundamental reset is essential to regain control and break a cycle of poor delivery and cost increases.