The Defence Investment Plan (DIP), a long-awaited document detailing the UK's defence spending priorities over the next decade, has been at the centre of a high-stakes negotiation between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury. With the clock ticking down to the NATO summit in Ankara on 7th and 8th July, new Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis has made a breakthrough, securing an additional £1 billion for the plan compared to his predecessor's failed attempts.
Mr Jarvis' announcement, made at a military think tank conference, marks a significant shift in fortunes after months of stalemate. The DIP is crucial, outlining major capital programmes and spending priorities over the next decade, and its delay has caused tensions within government. With reports suggesting that Mr Jarvis has secured at least £14 billion for the plan – an improvement on the previously offered £13.5 billion – it remains unclear whether this represents an overall increase to the total defence budget.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's commitment to increasing defence spending to 2.68% of GDP by 2030, a £2 billion uplift, has been a central plank in his government's plans. NATO's long-term aspiration for member states to allocate 3.5% of their GDP to defence by 2035 also provides context for the UK's ambitions. Mr Jarvis stressed that ongoing work is focused on mapping out the trajectory to meet these targets.
The timing of the DIP's publication is particularly significant, given Prime Minister Starmer's expected attendance at the Ankara summit as one of his final international engagements. There are indications that Andy Burnham could succeed him as Prime Minister shortly after, raising questions about the future of any defence spending deal agreed in the current administration's final days.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has expressed confidence that the new DIP will be published before the summit, promising "more money spent more effectively" to meet the scale of challenges facing the country. While Prime Minister Starmer's spokesperson stated that no new major policy or spending commitments would be initiated in his final days, the DIP is seen as a resolution to an existing issue rather than a new commitment.