North Korea's brazen declaration that it will double down on its nuclear programme has sparked alarm across the world, with leader Kim Jong-un vowing to expand his arsenal at an "exponential rate". This bold statement comes hot on the heels of a series of provocative declarations from Pyongyang, including plans to arm warships with nuclear missiles and boost weapons-grade production.
While North Korea's history is littered with grandiose claims about its military capabilities, experts suggest that this latest rhetoric signals a fundamental shift in strategy. No longer is it simply a question of whether North Korea possesses nuclear weapons; the real concern now is why Kim Jong-un feels compelled to amass such an extensive arsenal.
Peter Ward, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, believes that North Korea's approach is designed to make itself virtually unassailable. By cultivating a force so dispersed and extensive that it cannot be wiped out by a single strike, Pyongyang hopes to render diplomatic dismantling increasingly difficult. This strategy appears to be inspired by the experience of other states where external intervention has been witnessed.
The perceived need for an ever-larger arsenal is also driven by the conviction that a state at the threshold of nuclear capability is more vulnerable than one with a fully operational deterrent. North Korea's nuclear programme now encompasses rail and road-mobile launchers, hardened underground facilities, and an expanding submarine fleet – all designed to withstand even the most severe of first strikes.
Analysts like Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, suggest that Pyongyang believes its larger arsenal is necessary to counter the scale and complexity of forces arrayed against it, including the US nuclear umbrella, combined US-South Korean military presence, and trilateral cooperation with Japan. This goes beyond what might be considered minimum deterrence.
Lee Ho Ryung, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses (KIDA), indicates that Pyongyang's ultimate aim is to convince Washington to engage in serious dialogue by demonstrating its nuclear capabilities. While denuclearisation remains Seoul's official objective – and was reaffirmed as a shared goal by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in May – Chinese readouts of Xi's subsequent visit to Pyongyang made no mention of it.