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Olive Oil Prices Expected to Rise Again Amid European Crop Struggles

European farmers are warning of a slump in food production and rising prices for various crops, including olive oil, due to extreme heat, drought, and wildfires across the continent.

  • The cost of olive oil, already elevated, is expected to increase again.
  • Thousands of tonnes of products, including salad leaves, carrots, and onions, have been lost in France.
  • Spain's 2026-27 cereal crop is predicted to fall significantly from last year's 24m tonnes to just over 18.5m tonnes.

Farmers across Europe are reporting a decline in food production and anticipated price increases for a range of crops, from maize to salads, due to extreme heat, drought, and wildfires. Olive groves have also been affected by record high temperatures, leading to expectations of further price rises for olive oil, which is already at elevated levels.

In France, the Légumes de France association has warned of losses amounting to thousands of tonnes of produce, including salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic, and onions, with production for some crops potentially halved due to insufficient rain. The hot weather in France has also impacted grape growth in key wine regions, threatening a smaller crop and an earlier harvest, with Champagne producers expecting their earliest harvest ever around 15 August.

Spain's ministry of agriculture forecasts a significant drop in the country's 2026-27 cereal crop, from 24m tonnes last year to just over 18.5m tonnes. The European Union has also reduced harvest predictions for several crops, including sunflowers (down 7%), grain maize (down 6%), and potatoes and soya beans (down 3%).

Olive oil producers anticipate another price surge this year as growers contend with extreme heat, drought, and fires, which have affected groves in Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Sarah Vachon, founder of Citizens of Soil, stated that prices are likely to rise in the autumn if weather conditions do not improve, due to less edible fruit for olive oil production.

Why this matters: The widespread impact of extreme weather on European agriculture is expected to lead to higher food prices for consumers.

What this means for you: You may see the price of olive oil and other food items, such as salads, carrots, and onions, increase in stores.

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