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OpenAI revises 2026 revenue forecast down by $20bn

OpenAI has informed investors that its projected revenue for this year will be $50bn, a reduction of $20bn from previous indications. This adjustment has prompted questions regarding the rapid growth rate of demand for AI technology.

  • OpenAI's projected revenue for 2026 is now $50bn, down from a previously signalled $70bn.
  • The discrepancy is partly due to differing methods of measuring projected revenue compared to rival Anthropic.
  • The news contributed to a 1.4% decline in the tech-led Nasdaq on Thursday.

OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has revealed to investors that its projected revenue for this year is $50bn (£37bn). This figure, based on sales up to the end of September, represents a $20bn reduction from the $70bn it had indicated to investors last month.

The revised forecast has raised questions about the rapid growth rate in demand for artificial intelligence. The difference in projected revenue partly stems from attempts by OpenAI investors to align their measurement with that of rival Anthropic, which includes revenue from sales via cloud partners like Amazon's AWS and Google Cloud, unlike OpenAI.

News of the $20bn gap impacted US tech stocks on Thursday, with the Nasdaq closing down by 1.4%. Major chip company Nvidia saw a 2.9% fall, Oracle declined by 5.5%, and Micron was down 4.8%.

Why this matters: Forecasts of annualised revenues from leading AI companies are closely monitored by markets as an indicator of overall demand for AI technology, which is attracting significant investment.

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