The UK's defence strategy hangs in the balance as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's resignation has sparked internal dissent over the government's plans to increase spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. Despite this turmoil, Downing Street remains committed to publishing the long-awaited defence investment plan (DIP) before the NATO summit in Turkey on 7 July.
The decision to press ahead with the proposals has already prompted two defence ministers to resign, including Al Carns, who labelled the plan "not built for the threat we face". Former Defence Secretary John Healey has also expressed concerns, arguing that the planned rise to 2.68% of GDP by 2020 falls "well short" of the 3% target he believes is necessary. The Ministry of Defence had sought an additional £28 billion by the end of the decade but was offered only £10 billion.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves reiterated the government's commitment to the plan, stating it would involve more money being spent more effectively and meet the scale of challenges the UK faces. New Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis has acknowledged the country's commitment to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, assuring NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte that this promise will be met with a credible plan.
The timing of the publication, during a period of leadership transition, could pose an early challenge for Sir Keir's successor. Andy Burnham, the newly elected MP for Makerfield and the only formal candidate in the leadership race so far, has previously indicated a desire to fund defence spending through welfare savings. Should he, or another candidate considering the contest, become Prime Minister, they will face the immediate decision of either adhering to the current plan or unpicking it, potentially causing further delays.
The urgency to present a clear defence strategy is heightened by international pressure. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expects all member states to arrive at the Turkey summit with "clear, concrete and credible plans" to increase their defence spending. This pressure has intensified following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and renewed warnings from former US President Donald Trump regarding allied defence contributions.
Conservative Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge questioned the government's leadership on defence in the House of Commons, asking: "Who is in charge of defence in the United Kingdom at a time of war on two fronts?" This highlights the political sensitivities surrounding the plan during a period of domestic political change and ongoing international instability.