As the Labour Party hurtles towards a potentially seismic shift in leadership, speculation surrounding the composition of a potential cabinet under Andy Burnham's premiership is reaching a fever pitch. With the Makerfield by-election poised to return Burnham to Parliament, Westminster insiders are now grappling with the implications of his ascendancy and the shape of his government-in-waiting.
Ed Miliband, currently Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, has emerged as the most probable candidate for Chancellor. His vocal support for Burnham within the parliamentary party, coupled with their shared desire for radical policy shifts – including tax reform and greater public ownership of utilities – makes him a strong contender for the role. However, a potential point of divergence between the two could be Miliband's opposition to new North Sea oil and gas licences, contrasting with Burnham's focus on reindustrialisation.
Other names mentioned for the Treasury portfolio include Shabana Mahmood, Shadow Home Secretary, and Wes Streeting, Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care. While both have been suggested as options to reassure financial markets, it is considered more likely that Mahmood would prefer to remain in her current brief – potentially under new conditions. The role of Foreign Secretary remains a significant unknown, given Burnham's perceived lack of extensive experience in this area. This position could be offered to a key ally who facilitates a leadership transition, with Streeting or former Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey being possibilities.
Beyond the top ministerial posts, several individuals are expected to play crucial roles in a Burnham administration. Louise Haigh, a former Shadow Secretary of State for Transport, has emerged as a highly influential organiser and advisor during the Makerfield campaign. She is anticipated to receive a significant cabinet position, potentially focused on delivery, such as Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister. Anneliese Midgley, the MP for Knowsley and campaign chief in Makerfield, is also tipped for a prominent role, as are Miatta Fahnbulleh, a former Shadow Communities Minister, and backbencher Yuan Yang.
On the policy front, Josh Simons, who stepped aside from his Makerfield seat for Burnham, is widely expected to join him in Downing Street. Kevin Lee, Burnham's long-serving chief of staff, is highly likely to continue in that role. A broader network of policy advisors, including Mat Lawrence from Common Wealth and Mark McVitie, are also contributing to policy formulation.