Premier League matches this season are delivering more goals, with an average of 2.70 non-penalty goals per game, an increase from last season and two of the four previous campaigns. However, data suggests that even more entertainment should have been on offer, as the average non-penalty expected goals stands at 2.88, the second highest in the last six seasons.
This disparity indicates that chances are frequently going to waste. If teams converted at the expected rate, there would have been almost two additional goals per week. This underperformance against expected goals is linked to a higher proportion of drawn games than in any previous Premier League season.
The issue is widespread, with 14 clubs scoring fewer goals than expected, an increase from 10 last season. This trend is also evident in week-by-week performances, with 24 instances of teams scoring at least one goal fewer than their xG implied in the first five match weeks, double the number from the opening 50 games last season.
A potential factor is the increased reliance on individual key players for expected goals. The top players from each club have collectively scored 6.8 non-penalty goals fewer than expected, accounting for almost 40% of the division's shortfall from just 20 players.