Prime Minister Andy Burnham is preparing to address his first major policy challenges as MPs return to the Commons in just over a week. Decisions are pending on the budget, welfare spending, migration, and prisoner releases.
Chancellor John Healey is scheduled to deliver his first budget on 28 October. The government has committed to fiscal rules requiring the day-to-day budget to be balanced in three years, and has also pledged not to increase income tax, national insurance, or VAT. This limits the Chancellor's options for funding new policies, despite calls from some Labour MPs to raise wealth or business taxes.
In the coming weeks, Mr Burnham will receive two significant reports on the welfare system. One, from Minister Stephen Timms, addresses disability benefits, with an interim report indicating the current Personal Independence Payment (PIP) system is not working. The other report, by former minister Alan Milburn, focuses on youth employment. Charities are reportedly preparing to oppose any government attempts to cut benefits or impose sanctions on young people.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has proposed changes to migration policy, including extending the waiting period for migrants to become eligible for settled status, which grants access to benefits and NHS services. These proposed changes, which could apply to individuals already in the country, also include the forcible deportation of families who do not comply with removal orders. Mr Burnham has not yet made a decision on this package of proposals.
Next month, 5,000 prisoners are due to be released early to alleviate pressure on overcrowded prisons in England and Wales. The scheme has already been adjusted to exclude those convicted of rape, serious child sexual offences, and grooming, reducing the number of early releases by 1,000. Mr Burnham has promised further modifications to exclude additional categories of prisoners, a move that could intensify pressure on the prison system, which the Justice Secretary Alex Norris has warned could "break down."