As the clock ticks down to September 2, 2026, when up to 6,000 offenders are set to be released from prison across England and Wales under an 'earned progression model', the Prime Minister's decision to review early prisoner release plans has left probation staff reeling in uncertainty. Officials are scrambling to determine how to proceed amidst widespread preparations for the mass release of individuals convicted of serious crimes such as murder, rape, and sexual offences.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced on Wednesday that he would be examining "the whole of the policy" alongside new Justice Secretary Alex Norris. This move has prompted a crisis point for probation staff who have been working under intense pressure to prepare for the releases. Tania Bassett, National Officer for the Napo probation union, highlighted the significant disruption caused by the uncertainty surrounding the review.
"The prime minister’s statement saying he will review early release plans for September has created a sense of chaos in His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service," Ms Bassett stated. The union is seeking clarification on whether pre-release preparations should continue, but has received no definitive response from HMPPS. This lack of direction risks further compressing the already tight deadlines for essential preparations such as risk assessments, accommodation arrangements, home visits, and coordination with victim liaison and domestic abuse support officers.
The review could have severe consequences, potentially compromising the thoroughness of these critical tasks. "Unless 'imminent, concrete direction' is provided, established release plans could collapse," a union official warned. The early release scheme is part of the Sentencing Act 2026, which introduces an earned progression model that replaces automatic halfway release for prisoners serving standard determinate sentences with a tiered, behaviour-based approach.
Under this system, most prisoners will be eligible for release after serving a third of their sentence, with the remainder served under strict community supervision with electronic tagging. Crucially, prisoners serving time for sexual or violent offences, previously subject to two-thirds automatic release, may become eligible at the halfway point if they have maintained good behaviour in prison.
The policy has drawn criticism from victims' families, including the mother of police officer Andrew Harper, who described it as "another letdown" that two of her son's killers are being considered for early release under the scheme. Both Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole were jailed for 13 years in 2020 for manslaughter.