Most property investors in Australia may end up paying less capital gains tax following Labor's budget reforms, according to research based on an analysis of historical data by the e61 Institute. The analysis suggests that public debate since the May budget may have overstated the cost of the reforms for landlords and investors.
The e61 Institute's analysis indicated that if the new system had been in place from 2008 to 2025, 43% of housing investors would have paid less tax, while 53% would have paid more. Dr Nick Garvin, a co-author of the paper, stated that the effect on investors is "probably not nearly as bad as what's being made out."
New investor loan applications at the Commonwealth Bank reportedly fell by 28% in two months after the budget's release. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock noted that the budget reforms had "very directly" impacted the market, changing the dynamic for investors. However, the e61 research implied a smaller impact on investment decisions than observed, suggesting other factors like rising interest rates also contributed to increased costs.
Under the reforms, negative gearing will now only be available for newly built homes. Owners of existing properties can still carry forward and claim rental losses against their eventual capital gains tax bill when they sell. Dr Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, suggested that property could become a safer investment due to the changes, as low gains would be taxed less and high gains more, potentially making returns more predictable.