Pub Bosses Divided on Brexit's Economic Impact A Decade On
UKPulse Money Desk
A decade after the Brexit referendum, leading UK pub bosses remain divided on its economic impact on the sector. While some highlight job growth and immigration figures, others point to a worsened economic position and increased tax burdens.
- Share prices of major listed pub chains, excluding JD Wetherspoon, have generally fallen since the Brexit vote.
- The proportion of EU workers in hospitality declined from 18% to 12% between late 2019 and 2023, yet total hospitality employment grew from 2.3m to 2.6m between March 2016 and 2026.
- JD Wetherspoon's chairman, Tim Martin, asserts the UK's jobs market has thrived post-Brexit, citing 2.4 million new jobs and a low unemployment rate in 2022.
- Fuller Smith and Turner's executive chairman, Simon Emeny, believes the UK is in a worse economic position, partly due to Brexit, leading to higher taxes on the sector.
- Hospitality firms face increased tax burdens, including business rates, employer National Insurance contributions, and the National Minimum Wage.
A decade since the seismic referendum vote, Britain's pub sector is grappling with divergent views on the true impact of Brexit, even as its leaders converge in calling for reduced taxes and regulatory ease. The numbers don't lie: Marston's shares have plummeted 70% over this period, while Mitchells & Butlers fared slightly better before COVID-19 struck, wiping out much of its gains.
However, a standout exception to this trend is JD Wetherspoon, whose share price has increased since the Brexit vote. This may suggest market endorsement of Tim Martin's economic vision or possibly even a pro-Brexit investor sentiment boost for his stance. In fact, despite initial concerns over post-Brexit migration, the UK's hospitality workforce has grown from 2.3 million in March 2016 to an estimated 2.6 million by March 2026.
Chairman Tim Martin attributes this growth to rising immigration levels and a booming UK jobs market that created 2.4 million new positions with record-low unemployment of 3.7% in 2022. Notably, EU worker participation in the hospitality industry has decreased from 18% to 12%, but overall employment remains stable.
However, not everyone shares Martin's optimism. Fuller Smith and Turner's executive chairman Simon Emeny argues that Britain's economic prospects are worse now than a decade ago, with Brexit partly to blame. He points out that successive governments have imposed increased taxes on pubs, including higher business rates, employer National Insurance contributions, and rising National Minimum Wage.
Shepherd Neame CEO Jonathan Neame acknowledges the difficulty in pinpointing Brexit's specific effects against other significant events like COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict. Nevertheless, he notes that some 'dividends' from Brexit exist, even if they are difficult to quantify. The disparate views underscore the multifaceted economic consequences of Britain's departure from the EU on a vital industry.
Why this matters: The contrasting views from key industry figures highlight the ongoing debate about Brexit's true economic effects on UK businesses and households. This discussion is crucial for understanding the current economic landscape and future policy decisions affecting employment, investment, and consumer prices.
What this means for you: What this means for you: The varied experiences of pub companies could influence the prices you pay for food and drink, the availability of jobs in the sector, and the overall health of local high streets. Mortgage holders and savers should note the broader economic context, as government fiscal policies in response to economic performance can impact interest rates and inflation. Investors should seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the performance of listed companies like JD Wetherspoon, Marston's, and Mitchells & Butlers.