The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision today at 2:30pm. The unanimous prediction among experts is that the cash rate will remain at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting.
Despite inflation running at 3.8% in the year to June, exceeding the RBA's 2.5% target, recent data indicates inflation is not as high as anticipated. Additionally, unemployment is slightly higher, which are factors suggesting the RBA may hold rates for now.
While financial markets see little chance of a rate hike today, they still anticipate a nearly 50% chance of an increase later this year. Some economists suggest a November hike is most likely, while others predict a rate cut, though not until the second half of 2027.
Attention will be on the RBA board's statement accompanying the decision and whether the vote to hold rates is unanimous. Governor Michele Bullock's press conference at 3:30pm will also be closely watched. The bank will also release its quarterly statement on monetary policy, which is expected to forecast inflation returning to target within the next 12 months.