Reform UK has issued internal guidance to its local government representatives, instructing them to portray a Metropolitan Police investigation into party donations as an 'establishment stitch-up'. The directive, revealed in briefing documents circulated to councillors, suggests that the party views the inquiry as an attempt to impede its progress, stating, 'It is now clear that the establishment will try anything to stop us.'
The police investigation focuses on donations totalling £500,000 made to Reform UK by Fiona Cottrell, mother of George Cottrell, a convicted fraudster and associate of Nigel Farage. This inquiry adds to existing scrutiny surrounding Farage, including a parliamentary standards investigation into a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, and a separate probe into allegations of breaching parliamentary rules by receiving financial support from Cottrell. HMRC has also been asked to investigate whether Farage should have paid tax on the £5 million gift.
The internal party messaging coincides with a significant decline in Reform UK's leader Nigel Farage's personal popularity. New YouGov polling indicates his favourability has fallen to its lowest point in a decade, with only 22% holding a positive view compared to 68% with a negative one, resulting in a net favourability of -46. This figure is comparable to the low points experienced by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson after 'Partygate' revelations and former Labour leader Keir Starmer before his resignation.
Conversely, the political landscape is shifting with the new Labour Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, experiencing a notable surge in approval. Separate polling by More in Common suggests Burnham's personal approval rating, at +13%, is already higher than Starmer's ever achieved. This 'Burnham bounce' appears to be driven by a series of voter-pleasing policies, including a cut to VAT on electricity bills from October, capping bus fares at £2, and a £100 million aid package offering a 20% discount on business rates for pubs, clubs, and live music venues. While questions have been raised regarding the funding of these measures, the new administration asserts they are fully financed.
The latest YouGov voting-intention poll, conducted for The Times and Sky News, reflects this dynamic shift, showing a tightening race between the three major parties. Reform UK currently stands at 23% of the vote, with Labour closely behind at 21% and the Conservatives at 20%. Labour's current standing marks its highest since January, a significant increase from its 16% low recorded multiple times between March and early May this year. This narrowing gap represents a considerable change from the aftermath of May's local elections, when Reform UK polled 28%, holding an 11-point lead over any other party.