The stark contrast between Reform UK's dominance in national polls and its faltering performance in by-elections has raised fundamental questions about the party's electoral strategy and long-term viability. While Nigel Farage and his team continue to boast about their lead in the polls, a closer examination of recent contests reveals a more nuanced picture, one that threatens to undermine their national ambitions.
The by-election in Makerfield is a case in point, where Reform UK's candidate, Robert Kenyon, secured second place and increased his vote share from the 2024 general election. However, even this modest achievement was tempered by Farage's own description of the outcome as a 'disappointment', highlighting the party's growing unease about its ability to translate poll success into electoral victories.
A key factor in Reform UK's underperformance in by-elections appears to be candidate selection. In Gorton and Denton, the party's choice of Matthew Goodwin proved highly contentious, with his online comments sparking intense scrutiny among local voters. Similarly, in Makerfield, Robert Kenyon's extensive online posting history, including remarks deemed sexist and crude, reportedly deterred female voters.
Tactical voting also seems to be playing a significant role, as parties perceived as not being in contention see their vote share squeezed in areas where Reform UK is strong. Anecdotal evidence from canvassing suggests that many of these votes are strategically cast for the candidate most likely to prevent a Reform victory, indicating a strong desire among some voters to counter the party's influence.
The emergence of new competition on Reform UK's right flank adds further pressure. Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party, which secured 7% of the vote in Makerfield, could significantly impact Reform's ability to win seats if it replicates this performance in a general election. This openly far-right and largely online phenomenon has reportedly garnered support from figures like Elon Musk, owner of X, causing concern within Reform UK.
Responding to these challenges, Farage and his colleagues have shifted their rhetoric towards a more nativist right stance, including recent arguments that the UK is institutionally biased against certain groups. While this move may help to appease some hardline supporters, it risks further alienating mainstream voters and undermining Reform's electoral prospects.