The Tartan Army can hardly contain their excitement after Scotland's monumental 1-0 win over Haiti kicked off their World Cup campaign with a bang! The last time they secured a win at this level, Bobby Moore's England were still kings of the football world – 36 years of hurt are finally on the mend. A gritty performance has set up a tantalising prospect: can Scotland go from underdogs to World Cup heroes?
The numbers game suggests it's not as far-fetched as it sounds. According to Football Meets Data, a single-goal victory like this means even if they suffer two losses by the same margin in their next two matches, there's still an 87.5% chance of progression. Lose by another goal, and that figure drops to 69.4%. But the message is clear: every point counts.
While it's true that goals were few and far between – Scotland's expected goals (xG) figure was a modest 1.05 – there was one crucial difference between this match and their previous World Cup outings: they didn't leak one, either! James McFadden, the former Scotland star, praised his team's 'resilience', saying, "Winning games at major tournaments isn't something Scotland do regularly... but that's what has been forged in this group."
Now it's down to business. A mere point from their remaining two matches would send them through – and the pundits are already talking about how Morocco might prove a softer target than Brazil, who stuttered against Haiti in their opening draw.
The stats are on Scotland's side: since 1998, the fifth-best third-placed team has always finished with at least three points. It's a testament to the power of that first win – and proof that this Scotland side is writing its own history book, one match at a time.