New research suggests that England needs above-average rainfall for the next seven months for all areas to recover from drought by spring 2027. Despite some wet weather in early September, almost three-quarters of England remains in drought, according to the Environment Agency (EA).
The EA states that approximately 120% of typical rainfall is required between now and April to lift all areas out of drought status. Even with a predicted wetter autumn based on Met Office forecasts, Devon, Cornwall, and East Anglia could still be in drought by early spring 2027.
There is also roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of England will remain in drought next spring. The EA's Chief Executive, Philip Duffy, noted that recent rain has brought some relief, but groundwater levels remain low and reservoir storage is significantly below normal for this time of year.
The Met Office's latest seasonal outlook indicates an increased likelihood of a wetter-than-average autumn, partly influenced by the current El Niño. However, periods of heavy rain could also bring a risk of flooding, and floodwater can be difficult to store for public water supply.