Alarm bells are ringing over a disturbing surge in young women in their 20s being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes across England. Analysis by researchers at Imperial College London of NHS data from 2011 to 2024 reveals a sharp rise in cases within this age group, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic. This concerning trend is closely linked to escalating obesity levels among younger adults.
While type 2 diabetes is often associated with older age groups, and those over 40 still make up the largest proportion of new diagnoses, the disease is now increasing quickly in under-40s. The sharpest rises have been noted in women aged 20 to 29. In fact, an estimated 12,000 individuals under 30 in the UK are living with type 2 diabetes, with women making up a larger share of these younger cases.
The link between obesity and type 2 diabetes is clear: researchers found that body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis has been increasing more rapidly in younger adults compared to older age groups. This suggests a strong correlation between the two conditions. Developing type 2 diabetes at a younger age is particularly concerning because it tends to be more aggressive, significantly elevating the risk of severe complications such as heart attacks, strokes, and long-term organ damage.
NHS data also highlights a broader increase in obesity rates across England since the pandemic. Official statistics show that nearly one in three people are now affected by obesity, with the most substantial increases observed in younger adults. Between 2019 and 2025, new obesity cases rose by 16% in individuals aged 20-29 and almost 20% in those aged 30-39.
According to Dr Shivani Misra, lead researcher at Imperial College London, the earlier onset of severe obesity in young people is likely driving down their age at diagnosis for type 2 diabetes, leading to poorer health outcomes. Crucially, while discussions about rising rates have often focused on ethnic minority groups, who traditionally face higher risks, the new data suggests this trend extends beyond those communities – with incidence now increasing in white populations too.
Diabetes UK highlights the need for improved follow-up care for mothers diagnosed with gestational diabetes during pregnancy. This condition increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes after childbirth, underscoring the importance of targeted support and prevention strategies across generations.