The impending ban on social media for under-16s in the UK is expected to trigger a £1.3 billion reduction in digital ad spend by 2027, according to revised forecasts from eMarketer. This significant shift will force brands to reassess their marketing strategies as millions of young users become inaccessible on platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and YouTube, which have historically been crucial channels for reaching this demographic.
Analysts at eMarketer have downgraded their 2027 forecast for UK digital advertising spend by £1.3 billion to £17 billion, reflecting the anticipated impact of the ban. Research from Beano Brain indicates that a third of seven- to 14-year-olds discovered new products through YouTube ads and influencers, highlighting the previous effectiveness of these channels.
The void left by social media is likely to be filled by streaming services, which are increasingly introducing advertising tiers. Helenor Gilmour, head of Beano Brain, suggests that platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney+, which collectively reach 27 million UK viewers with ad-supported subscriptions, will absorb a significant portion of the redirected ad spend. Traditional television is also expected to benefit, particularly around popular family-oriented programmes and event shows.
Industry experts believe that while there may be an immediate drop in digital ad spend, budgets will not simply vanish. Brand strategists such as James Kirkham view the ban as an opportunity for brands to invest in creating 'cultural cornerstones' – engaging young audiences through avenues such as sport or educational institutions. Large advertisers are accustomed to operating within highly regulated environments, suggests Joseph Petyan, CEO of VML.
The UK's advertising landscape has long been subject to stringent regulations concerning marketing to children, including bans on junk food advertising around children's shows dating back to 2006. More recent crackdowns by the UK advertising watchdog on junk food ads online and near schools illustrate this trend. Market research firm eMarketer anticipates a quick recovery in digital advertising as brands adapt and focus on older users.
This regulatory change underscores a broader trend towards increased scrutiny of how technology platforms engage with younger audiences, with potential long-term implications for both digital advertising models and how UK businesses connect with future generations of consumers.