The UK government's shock decision to introduce a social media ban for under-16s by 2027 has ignited a scientific firestorm. Researchers are racing against time to assess the policy's real-world impact on young people's well-being.
Pete Etchells from Bath Spa University, an advisor to both Australian and UK governments, admits there is no evidence either way: "It's such new territory." This lack of data underscores the urgency for comprehensive research to determine whether the ban achieves its intended positive outcomes for children.
The Wellcome Trust is leading this research effort in the UK, conducting the 'IRL Trial' in Bradford with 4,000 children aged 12-15 from ten schools. Participants have installed an app to monitor social media usage – half will have their access limited by the software. Initial findings are expected in mid-2027, after the national ban takes effect, but Catherine Sebastian believes they'll still inform future policy decisions.
Researchers aim to improve upon existing methodologies, which rely on subjective self-reported data from children or parents. Instead, they'll focus on objective metrics and longer-term effects. Etchells notes that short intervention studies can't capture the complex long-term changes in mental health: "You're not going to see changes in two weeks." The challenge lies in conducting meaningful studies once a national ban makes controlled group comparisons impossible.
To address these complexities, the Wellcome Trust has invited 14 research teams to propose plans for studying social media's effects on young people's well-being. Proposals include longitudinal studies tracking existing cohorts over time and momentary assessments via text messages prompting real-time surveys. Researchers may also analyse existing data on hospital admissions or school attendance rates.
Sebastian anticipates the results will be nuanced, revealing both positive and short-term disruptive impacts, such as the loss of online support networks for vulnerable children. While some results are hoped for soon after the ban, others may take longer to materialise, but ultimately, this research is crucial for informing future policy decisions on social media's impact on young people.