Society operates as a complex system, making its future properties and adaptive responses difficult to predict, according to an analysis published today. This complexity means that unexpected events can lead to rapid shifts, known as 'tipping points', where society moves quickly from one state to another.
Historical examples, such as the transformation of Ireland from a Catholic theocracy to legalising equal marriage and abortion, illustrate how seemingly impossible changes can become inevitable. Similar rapid shifts have been observed with the collapse of state communism and various empires.
The current climate situation may be approaching such a social tipping point. While the long-held belief was that fossil fuels were indispensable, recent reporting indicates that fossil fuels are now more expensive than renewables. Green technologies are also reportedly creating significant employment and income, and technological barriers are said to be falling.
However, the precise timing of these tipping points, whether positive or negative, cannot be known in advance and can only be recognised in retrospect. The critical question is whether social tipping points can be reached before environmental tipping points, such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic current system or cascading failure of the Amazon rainforest.