The US-NATO relationship is set to face its most significant test this week at the alliance's annual summit in Ankara, Turkey, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer under pressure to commit to a more ambitious defence spending plan. The warning shot has come from US Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker, who has called on all member states who are "lagging behind" on defence contributions to increase their spending immediately.
The UK's commitment to collective defence will be scrutinised closely at the summit, coming just a week after the Government released its Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which commits an additional £15 billion to defence. While this plan does propose a gradual increase in defence spending as a proportion of GDP, reaching 2.7% by 2030 from 2.6% in 2027, the target falls short of the ambitious targets agreed at last year's NATO summit in The Hague.
The UK is among several nations that have been identified by US officials as needing to accelerate their investment in defence. This includes countries such as Poland and the Nordic and Baltic states, which are leading the way in meeting the alliance's target of 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035. However, Ambassador Whitaker has made it clear that these nations will need to "step up immediately" and not just aim for a sustainable path to 5%, but reach it "as soon as possible".
The situation is further complicated by the impending leadership change in the UK, with Andy Burnham widely expected to become Prime Minister later this month. The new Defence Secretary, Dan Jarvis, has already urged Mr Burnham to dramatically increase defence spending from 2030 to demonstrate a clear path towards the NATO target.
Mr Jarvis stated that he wants to see evidence of a trajectory to 3.5% in the next spending review and has reportedly been in contact with Mr Burnham's team to discuss defence priorities. This pressure comes at a time when recent operational incidents have highlighted the importance of strong defence capabilities, including the interception by British F-35 fighter jets of a Russian maritime patrol aircraft that approached HMS Prince of Wales in the Norwegian Sea.