Shipping traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz has yet to return to normal despite claims from former US President Donald Trump that it had been 'opened' following a deal with Iran. An analysis of MarineTraffic data reveals just seven vessels have navigated the waterway since Sunday's announcement, while 580 ships are currently waiting in the Gulf. This significant backlog underscores the ongoing instability in the region, where approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies normally pass through.
Experts pinpoint three main obstacles hindering a return to pre-conflict shipping levels: persistent security concerns, the threat of sea mines, and unresolved issues surrounding tolls and insurance. Martin Kelly from EOS Risk Group highlighted the extreme risk, stating it would take an 'extremely brave captain' to navigate the Strait in its current state. Since late February's closure by Iran following US and Israeli strikes, there have been reports of Iranian forces firing on vessels attempting to cross without permission. The US also imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, disabling nine 'non-compliant vessels' since April 13, according to US Central Command, further exacerbating the security situation.
Even with Mr Trump's declaration of an 'immediate removal' of the US naval blockade, he later clarified it would remain until the deal with Iran is formally signed. Satellite imagery from June 15 still shows four US warships positioned near the American blockade line at the entrance to the Gulf of Oman, contributing to a cautious atmosphere. This has led to a 'wait-and-see mentality' among ship owners, captains, and insurers, according to Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at Kpler. Many recall a similar incident in early April when Iran declared the Strait fully open, only to close it again the next day, forcing dozens of vessels to reverse course and some to report being fired upon.
Beyond direct security threats, the danger of sea mines presents another formidable challenge. Iran had previously threatened to deploy 'various types of sea mines' if its coastline or islands were attacked. Both the multinational Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman's Maritime Security Centre have since issued warnings about 'floating objects' suspected to be mines. This potential hazard necessitates extensive de-mining operations and clear assurances of safety before commercial shipping can resume with confidence, a process that could take considerable time and resources.
The financial implications also play a significant role. The uncertainty surrounding potential new tolls or increased insurance premiums for transiting the Strait is a major deterrent for shipping companies. Such additional costs would inevitably be passed on to UK businesses and consumers, further exacerbating the global price of oil and gas, which already faces volatility due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.