Scientists are predicting that the peak of El Niño will occur between October and December, coinciding with the Amazon rainforest's dry season. This period is when rivers are at their lowest and undergrowth is most likely to be dry, creating extreme vulnerability for the forest.
This El Niño is on course to be the strongest in 150 years, according to scientists. The Brazilian meteorological agency has forecast that this unusually strong El Niño will delay the onset of the Amazonian rainy season, raise temperatures, deplete rivers, and intensify fire risks.
The Amazon is already struggling to recover from the devastation of the last El Niño in 2023-24. Professor Jos Barlow, an Amazon specialist, described the prospect of an even stronger phenomenon as deeply worrying, making it "hard to imagine the outcome of even more severe droughts and heat."
The brutal conditions are likely to persist and potentially intensify into 2027, with a lag of about three months between the peak of El Niño warming in the Pacific Ocean and temperature rises elsewhere. Carlos Nobre, a climate scientist, stated the Amazon needs to be "very prepared from now through the beginning of 2027, at least up to March."