Sunderland, who were promoted from the Championship in May 2025, defied expectations in the 2025-26 Premier League season by finishing seventh and securing European qualification for the first time since 1973. However, the Black Cats are once again among the bookmakers' favourites for relegation, alongside newly promoted Hull City, Coventry, and Ipswich.
Doubters point to three main reasons for this prediction: the team's underlying statistics from last season, the 'second-season syndrome' often associated with promoted sides, and the added workload of a European campaign. Sunderland's expected goals (xG) difference was lower than only relegated Burnley and Wolves last season, suggesting their performances may not have been as strong as their results.
The club will embark on their first European campaign in 53 years, with at least eight Europa League games scheduled. While only two of the previous nine promoted sides to qualify for Europe were relegated the following season, Ipswich in 2001-02 serves as a precedent for a high-finishing promoted side dropping down with European commitments.
However, Sunderland's underlying numbers improved towards the end of last season after the return of six players from the Africa Cup of Nations. With no Afcon this season, the club may avoid a similar dip in performance.