The western Pacific has long been synonymous with powerful typhoons, but for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands, the threat posed by Super Typhoon Bavi is a stark reminder of their vulnerability to extreme weather events. As the storm bears down on these US territories, residents are bracing themselves for 'catastrophic' damage and 'significant flooding from torrential rains', with waves potentially reaching nearly 11m (35ft) high.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a division of the US Navy responsible for monitoring tropical storms in the western Pacific, has classified Bavi as a super typhoon. This classification signifies winds exceeding 150mph, and the JTWC anticipates Bavi will have sustained winds of 173mph upon reaching the islands, with gusts potentially hitting 207mph. The National Weather Service (NWS) equates the destructive potential of a super typhoon to that of a Category four or five hurricane.
Guam's authorities are taking no chances, activating five evacuation centres within its schools, which have a combined maximum capacity of around 1,700 people. One of these centres has already reached full capacity by Sunday afternoon local time, prompting authorities to redirect evacuees to alternative sites. The NWS has underlined the gravity of the situation, warning that venturing outside during the storm will pose a 'deadly threat'.
The US Pacific territories have witnessed a disturbing trend in recent years: 11 Category four or five tropical cyclones have impacted their shores since 2010, exceeding the total recorded over the preceding 57 years. Climate change is believed to be a contributing factor to this rise in frequency and intensity of powerful typhoons in the region. The strong El Niño event currently underway will only exacerbate the situation, driving more tropical storms to higher intensities.
Business owners on Guam are taking precautions, with one eatery owner shelling out £373 for plywood to board up windows. Meanwhile, Japanese tourists have reported cancelled flights, adding to their anxiety as they prepare to shelter in their hotels. The island's tourist industry is likely to take a significant hit if the storm makes landfall with its predicted ferocity.
As Super Typhoon Bavi closes in on the US Pacific territories, the world watches with bated breath. While this region is accustomed to tropical cyclones, storms of this magnitude are less common for these islands. The true extent of the damage and disruption caused by Bavi will only become clear once the storm passes.