The battle for Makerfield has taken an intriguing turn as the stakes are high for Labour's candidate Andy Burnham. New polling data reveals a significant willingness among left-leaning voters to strategically lend their support to Burnham, potentially deciding the outcome of the by-election. This tactical voting trend is being driven by supporters of both the Green Party and Liberal Democrats, who are prepared to put aside their differences in order to prevent Reform UK from claiming the seat.
On the right, however, a different dynamic seems to be at play. Despite polling indicating that Restore Britain's vote share is comparable to Labour's current lead, their supporters appear less inclined to tactically switch allegiance to Robert Kenyon of Reform UK. This reluctance could inadvertently benefit Burnham and Labour in the coming weeks.
What's striking is the sheer scale of potential tactical voting involved. In the last general election, held just over a year ago, the Liberal Democrats secured 7% of the vote, while the Greens gained 4.5%. This combined total significantly surpasses Burnham's current poll lead in the by-election context, suggesting that voter behaviour is shifting.
Professor Rob Ford, a leading expert on political science at the University of Manchester, has highlighted the stark tactical logic at play in Makerfield. With other parties far out of contention, it's clear to voters that neither a Green nor Liberal Democrat MP is likely to be elected. This makes the decision to tactically vote for the leading progressive candidate – Burnham in this case – a straightforward one.
Research conducted by Opinium on behalf of Forward Democracy has shed light on the extent of tactical voting intentions among various groups. Over half of those who would typically vote Green or Liberal Democrat plan to support Burnham, while only about a third of Restore Britain's supporters are willing to switch their vote. This disparity highlights a more effective tactical squeeze on the left compared to the right, where Restore Britain's campaign is perceived by some as aimed at splitting the Reform vote rather than consolidating it.
Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy, commented that these findings confirm their long-held belief in the effectiveness of tactical voting. He noted that progressive voters are actively lending their support to Burnham, acknowledging that a divided progressive vote could allow Reform UK to win the seat.