This year's El Niño, a natural climate pattern, has already broken temperature records and could be on track to be the strongest in a thousand years. Sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of the Pacific have reached 3C above average, a level previously seen in 2015.
Professor Mat Collins, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, stated that the El Niño has not yet peaked, and temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently on course to be 4C above average. This natural phenomenon typically occurs every three to seven years, with the last one recorded in 2023-24.
El Niño events often lead to higher temperatures, increased droughts, and floods globally. The current event is expected to contribute to more wildfires in Indonesia, drought in the Amazon rainforest, and a weakened Indian monsoon. While the UK may experience a wetter winter and autumn, and potentially a drier, colder spring, the variability of UK weather makes this less certain.
The relationship between El Niños and human-caused global heating is complex, with both factors layering on top of each other to make extreme weather more likely. Scientific papers suggest a possibility that human-caused climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of El Niños, though definitive proof is still emerging.