As tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate, a leading theoretical physicist has sounded the alarm on what he calls a perilous "sleepwalking" towards nuclear conflict. Professor Carlo Rovelli's warnings have sparked debate in Europe and beyond, with his new book 85 Seconds to Midnight: A Physicist’s Argument Against Rearmament arguing that the West's aggressive posturing and increased military spending are misguided and potentially disastrous.
Professor Rovelli, an Italian physicist of international renown, challenges the prevailing narrative that Russia poses a conventional military threat to Europe. He dismisses this notion as "ridiculous", pointing out that NATO nations collectively account for 40% of global military spending, while Russia's share is just 4%. However, he acknowledges Russia's substantial nuclear arsenal of over 4,000 warheads, which makes direct military confrontation impossible without severe repercussions.
The core of Rovelli's argument centres on "mutual fear" and a "lack of reciprocal trust" between nuclear powers. He highlights that only China among the three major nuclear states (Russia, the US, and China) has committed to a "no first use" policy. Both Russia and the US reserve the right to respond to conventional attacks with nuclear strikes. This creates a perilous environment where any perceived aggression could trigger an unimaginable response.
A recent incident in St Petersburg, where Ukrainian forces reportedly used NATO-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory, is cited by Rovelli as a concerning escalation. He views this as the first instance of a nuclear superpower being "bombed" in such a manner, fundamentally shifting the established deterrence dynamic. From the Kremlin's perspective, Rovelli argues, such actions reinforce long-held fears of Western aggression, drawing parallels to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the US placed nuclear missiles in Turkey, prompting the Soviet Union's response in Cuba.
Professor Rovelli contends that this Russian aggression, which he links to Moscow's fear of Ukraine joining NATO and potentially hosting Western nuclear weapons, has in turn fuelled a "whirlwind of fears and clamours for rearmament" across Western Europe. He expresses concern over statements from UK, French, and German governments suggesting a need for their populations to be ready for war and for education to make conflict more "acceptable", which he describes as "nonsense" when based on the premise of a direct Russian invasion of Europe.
He further draws a historical parallel to the rise of Nazism, suggesting that its aggression was fuelled by a perceived weakness and fear, rather than inherent strength. Rovelli applies this analysis to contemporary conflicts, including the Middle East, where he believes fear drives the actions of both Israeli forces and their Palestinian counterparts.