The US Gulf coast is bracing itself for a potentially catastrophic hit from Tropical Depression 3, which forecasters predict will strengthen into a tropical storm by tonight. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has issued warning watches for several areas across the region, alerting residents to life-threatening conditions that could arise from heavy rainfall and severe flooding. As of Monday morning local time, the depression was situated approximately 195km south of Panama City, Florida, and 346km south-east of Mobile, Alabama, moving with maximum sustained winds of 35mph and higher gusts.
A storm surge watch has been issued for the area stretching from the Alabama-Florida border westward to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Concurrently, a tropical storm watch is in effect from the Mississippi-Alabama border to the boundary between Louisiana’s Jefferson and Plaquemines parishes. The NHC indicates that the depression is expected to track near or along the northern Gulf coast over the coming days, bringing with it significant risks.
The storm surge watch highlights a serious threat of coastal flooding as rising waters move inland from the shoreline within the next 48 hours. When combined with high tide, this surge could inundate normally dry coastal areas along parts of the northern Gulf coast. Water levels could see an increase of 60-120cm from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama-Florida border, with a 30-90cm surge possible across sections of coastal Louisiana and Florida, including Lake Pontchartrain.
Beyond coastal flooding, the depression is also predicted to generate widespread rainfall, with totals of 5-10cm expected, and isolated amounts potentially reaching up to 20cm through Friday, from western Florida to the central Texas coast. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in various locations, and there is also a possibility of isolated tornadoes across Florida’s Big Bend region.
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Fausto continues to intensify, with forecasters predicting it will become a hurricane later today. As of Monday morning, Fausto was moving west-northwest at approximately 13mph, with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The NHC forecasts further intensification over the next few days. While no coastal watches or warnings are currently in place for Fausto, swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the west coast of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday and persist for several days, creating hazardous surf and rip current conditions.