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Tropics to be last to benefit from net zero emissions, research finds

New research indicates that the unequal impact of the climate crisis will persist, with tropical regions among the last to benefit from global net zero greenhouse gas emissions.

  • Tropical areas have experienced more significant temperature rises relative to historic levels compared to higher latitudes.
  • This inequality may not be reversed even if global emissions reach net zero, and could take many decades to reverse with net-negative emissions.
  • A separate report highlights how the climate crisis increases the risk of people becoming stateless.

New research has highlighted the unequal impact of the climate crisis, finding that tropical regions will be among the last to experience benefits if global greenhouse gas emissions are cut to net zero. Temperatures in tropical areas have risen more significantly compared to historic levels than in wealthier countries at higher latitudes, such as those in Europe and North America.

A team of Australian climate scientists, led by Dr Andrew King at the University of Melbourne, found that this inequality would not be reversed even if global emissions reached net zero, the implicit goal of the 2015 Paris agreement. Dr King stated that the inequality seen in present-day warming would persist indefinitely if a path close to net zero is followed.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, examined three computer modelling experiments of temperature changes under net zero emissions, overlaying the results with countries' gross domestic product. Dr King noted that wealthier countries, which have contributed more to the problem, are not the most exposed, while regions that have not caused the warming experience the most warming.

Separately, the UN's refugee agency released a report, co-authored by University of Melbourne Associate Professor Radha Govil, on how the climate crisis is increasing the risk of people becoming stateless. The report, commissioned with the Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, called on nations to support the continuity of statehood for countries facing extreme climate damage, including Pacific islands losing land to rising seas.

Why this matters: The research indicates that current climate inequalities will continue even with global efforts to reach net zero emissions, potentially for centuries, affecting the planet's poorest regions and vulnerable ecosystems.

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