The shadow of Donald Trump's presidency still looms large over global politics, with the former US leader having formally signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran. This deal brings an end to a protracted conflict that was marked by immense human and financial costs, sparked by Mr Trump's initial ambitions for regime change in Tehran, the dismantling of Iran's ballistic missile programme, and preventing the development of nuclear weapons.
The terms of this agreement are significant: the US blockade on Iran will be lifted, Iranian assets unfrozen, and all sanctions removed, allowing Tehran to export oil despite any ongoing nuclear disputes. Critics, however, have labelled the deal as 'appeasement', with some analysts suggesting it offers less than what was achievable before the conflict began. Former US Vice-President Mike Pence has also expressed his reservations, highlighting the prolonged hostilities as a waste of resources.
During this period of hostilities, Iran's infrastructure, economy, and military were severely impacted, while key figures, including its supreme leader, fell victim to the conflict. However, some analysts now suggest that Iran's leadership has become more militarised and potentially harderline due to these experiences, with parts of the establishment inclined to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent against future aggression.
The timing of this deal comes amid critical US domestic politics: looming mid-term elections and a reportedly disgruntled voter base may have driven Mr Trump's pragmatism. He cited concerns about the global economy teetering on the brink of depression, though some commentators propose that his primary concern was the economic impact on his own supporters rather than global poverty. A final agreement is expected within 60 days, potentially with an extension.
Regional stability remains a pressing concern: despite Lebanon's inclusion in the deal as a key player, Israel has not agreed to withdraw from disputed territories. Reports of violence have already emerged following the deal's signing, highlighting the need for sustained pressure, verification, and accountability to ensure this agreement sticks and builds momentum.