US President Donald Trump is reportedly grappling with the military conflict with Iran as midterm elections loom. Efforts to end the war, which began almost six months ago on 28 February with Israel, have faltered following the collapse of a ceasefire agreement signed in June.
The breakdown of the agreement has left Iran in control of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that previously facilitated one-fifth of global oil supplies. This Iranian control has contributed to increased oil prices, inflation, and rising living costs in the US, at a time when Trump's Republican party faces an uphill battle to maintain control of the US Congress in November's midterm elections.
Public support for the war is low, with polls indicating that a majority of American voters feel their economic situation has worsened since Trump's return to office in January 2025. Analysts suggest that Iran's leaders may seek to exploit Trump's unpopularity as the midterms approach, with one expert stating they are determined to make him "pay the consequences of starting this war at the midterm elections."
A 60-day ceasefire, part of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed in June, lapsed this week without a formal resolution. Iran has reportedly intimated that Trump has four weeks to return to the MOU and fully implement it, or they will escalate attacks on Gulf targets, US bases, and military assets.