As former US President Donald Trump continues to feature prominently in American political discourse and a potential 2024 presidential bid looms, attention is turning to what his foreign policy might entail, particularly concerning Cuba. During his initial term, Trump largely reversed the thawing of relations initiated by the Obama administration, re-imposing a series of sanctions and restrictions that had been eased.
Under President Obama, efforts were made to normalise relations with Cuba, including the restoration of diplomatic ties, the easing of travel restrictions for US citizens, and the removal of Cuba from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. These moves were seen as a significant shift after decades of estrangement following the Cuban Revolution.
However, the Trump administration took a markedly different approach. Citing concerns over human rights and Cuba's support for the Venezuelan government, Trump's White House reinstated many of the stricter measures. This included limiting remittances, tightening travel regulations, and increasing pressure on the Cuban government. The US also re-designated Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism in January 2021, just before Trump left office, a move that carries significant economic and diplomatic repercussions.
Should Donald Trump secure the presidency again, there is an expectation among foreign policy analysts that his administration would likely continue, or even intensify, the hardline stance towards Cuba. This could involve further economic sanctions, increased diplomatic isolation, and sustained pressure on Cuba's political system. Such a policy would be consistent with the 'America First' doctrine that prioritises perceived US national interests and often entails a more confrontational approach to nations deemed adversarial.
The implications of such a policy shift would be far-reaching. For Cuba, it could exacerbate existing economic challenges, particularly given the reliance on tourism and remittances which are directly impacted by US sanctions. For the United States, it would signify a continued departure from the engagement policy of the Obama years, potentially complicating broader diplomatic efforts in Latin America and beyond. International allies, including those in the UK and EU, who have generally favoured a more open approach to Cuba, would also be watching closely, as any significant US policy change could affect their own diplomatic and economic engagements with the island nation.