UBS has pushed back against the prevailing market anxiety that persistently higher interest rates will derail the ongoing bull market. In a note published this week, the bank's strategists argued that the current environment — where central banks keep borrowing costs elevated to combat inflation — does not automatically spell the end of equity gains, as long as corporate earnings remain resilient and economic growth does not tip into recession.
The comments come as London's FTSE 100 closed up 18 points, or 0.3%, at 8,324 on Friday, with the index finding support from mining heavyweights such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American, both of which rose more than 1%. The mid-cap FTSE 250 added 0.2%, mirroring a cautiously optimistic tone across European bourses. Sterling hovered near $1.28 against the dollar, reflecting expectations that the Bank of England may hold rates steady at its August meeting.
UBS highlighted that the bull market's durability rests on three pillars: robust corporate balance sheets, structural spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and a labour market that, while cooling, remains historically tight. 'Higher rates are a headwind, not a death knell,' the note stated. 'We see select opportunities in UK equities, particularly in sectors tied to commodities and domestic services, where pricing power remains intact.'
For UK investors and pension holders, the analysis offers a counterpoint to fears that the era of cheap money ending would inevitably drag down portfolios. The FTSE 100's heavy weighting in energy and mining stocks — sectors that benefit from elevated commodity prices — provides a natural hedge against rate-sensitive growth stocks. However, the bank cautioned that the path is not without risk, noting that a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US or a resurgence of inflation could quickly alter the outlook.
Market participants are now looking ahead to next week's flash PMI data for the UK and US, which will offer the first major economic reading since the recent rate decisions. If services activity holds above the 50-mark expansion threshold, UBS's thesis that the bull market can coexist with higher rates will gain further traction.