The UK economic outlook is set to be a tale of two trajectories in 2026-2027, according to the latest independent forecasts compiled by HM Treasury. With GDP growth predictions ranging from 1.2% to 3.5%, inflation forecasted between 2.8% and 4.9%, and interest rates projected to fluctuate between 2.25% and 5.0%, the divergence in expert opinions is as stark as it is uncertain.
This edition of the forecast comparison highlights both short-term and medium-term economic outlooks, with specific figures for calendar years 2026 and 2027, as well as financial year forecasts for 2025-26 and 2026-27. The report also extends its gaze to 2030, providing medium-term projections and financial year forecasts covering 2025-26 to 2029-30.
The compilation of these diverse forecasts underscores the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the UK economy's trajectory. Despite the variation in predictions, one thing is clear: the Bank of England will be keeping a close eye on these indicators as it navigates its monetary policy decisions. Changes in interest rates have far-reaching implications, influencing everything from mortgage repayments for homeowners to borrowing costs for businesses.
The Treasury's publication serves solely as a summary of external views and does not reflect its own economic outlook. The inclusion or exclusion of forecasting organisations is not indicative of significance, and the Treasury explicitly states it accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of the material within the comparison. Nonetheless, these forecasts remain a crucial resource for policymakers and the public, offering valuable insights into the collective sentiment among economists.