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UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July, Defying Forecasts

The UK economy saw a 0.4% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in July, exceeding economists' forecasts of zero growth. This follows a 0.3% growth recorded in June.

  • UK GDP increased by 0.4% in July.
  • Economists had predicted zero growth for July.
  • The UK recorded the strongest growth in the G7 during the first half of 2026.

The UK economy experienced a 0.4% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in July, according to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This growth surpassed the zero growth forecast by City economists.

The July figures follow a 0.3% growth in June. The UK's economy grew despite the ongoing impact of the Iran war, which has contributed to global economic instability and a rise in the global oil price to over $100 a barrel.

Borrowing costs for the UK government have reached their highest level in nearly two decades. Economists have warned that the Chancellor, John Healey, may need to consider increasing taxes or cutting spending in his upcoming budget on 28 October, partly due to rising interest rates following turmoil in global bond markets.

Why this matters: The unexpected economic growth in July comes as the UK government faces surging borrowing costs and warnings of higher inflation globally.

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