The UK government's "one in one out" deal with France, designed to deter small boat arrivals, is expected to expire on Thursday, government sources have indicated. Negotiations between the two countries have reportedly stalled.
It is understood that France is seeking a Europe-wide deal instead and is reluctant to scale up the numbers of people exchanged. A UK government source confirmed the expectation that the deal would formally conclude on Thursday.
Flights removing individuals already detained under the scheme will continue for a few weeks before ending. The deal, announced by Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron in July 2025, was extended to 1 October after initially being set to expire in April.
France's interior minister, Laurent Nuñez, stated in June that the pilot agreement was not intended to be extended beyond 1 October 2026, despite acknowledging its potential deterrent value. He also emphasised that France should not bear the burden alone and preferred an EU-UK agreement.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood disclosed earlier this month that the deal cost approximately £56,000 for each person returned to France. She also expressed scepticism about an EU-wide system being a "silver bullet" for the Channel crisis, noting the operational difficulties in scaling up returns.