UK house prices have posted their first rise in four months, with a modest 0.2% increase in June, according to Lloyds' latest figures. This marginal upturn follows a 0.2% dip in May and comes as the country grapples with economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
London remains the UK's most expensive market, with an average property price of £534,831, although prices in the capital dropped by 1.1% year-on-year in June. In stark contrast, Northern Ireland led regional growth with a 3.9% annual increase, bringing the average price to £223,277, closely followed by Scotland.
Estate agents are reporting mixed signals. Tom Bill, Knight Frank's head of UK residential research, notes that prices have been 'going sideways' due to higher mortgage rates linked to the Middle East conflict. However, he suggests that geopolitical risks may be subsiding, and mortgage rates could gradually fall. In contrast, domestic political risks, such as potential changes to property taxation, may temper activity and prices over the summer.
Amy Reynolds of AntonyRoberts in Richmond expects the market to remain broadly flat, but predicts a correction in fixed mortgage rates could lead to more confident buyer activity in the coming months. This would mark a shift from the cautious 'wait-and-see' approach that has restrained price growth so far.
The global energy market is experiencing volatility, with Shell anticipating significantly higher gas trading profits in its second quarter despite an expected substantial drop in integrated gas output due to the Middle East conflict. Meanwhile, Brent crude has seen a 1.1% rise, climbing back above $72 a barrel following reports of an attack on a liquefied natural gas carrier near the Omani coast.