The UK housing market has been given little cause for cheer by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), which reports muted sales activity over the coming 12 months. A fragile recovery remains in doubt as estate agents are advised to prepare for subdued transaction volumes.
New buyer enquiries have declined, but at a slower rate than previously reported, with a net balance of -29% recorded. This marks a marginal improvement from the -34% seen in the preceding two months and is the least negative reading since February. However, newly agreed sales remained weak, registering a net balance of -32%, a slight improvement from -35% previously.
The market's sustained weakness in pricing persists nationally, with a headline price balance at -33%. This is largely unchanged from recent months, as some housebuilders continue to offer discounts on unsold properties to maintain sales momentum. RICS' Head of Market Research and Analysis, Tarrant Parsons, notes that while some key indicators are moving in a less negative direction, the nascent improvement is fragile and being tested by renewed political uncertainty and interest rates.
Industry experts echo this sentiment. Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, attributes the slight improvement to de-escalating global tensions and slightly lower mortgage rates. However, he warns that buyers and sellers face a summer of speculation regarding potential property tax increases in the upcoming Budget, which will continue to suppress prices and sales volumes.
Jeremy Leaf, a North London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, points to ongoing concerns about global economic impacts and domestic political instability as factors pushing home buying and selling down the priority list for many. While certain segments, such as portfolio landlords securing refinancing deals, continue to see activity, the broader market remains constrained.